OPTIMAL BET · THE SLATE
Friday, April 17
Tonight’s board: 2 NBA play-in games · 15 MLB
The NBA Play-In Tournament wraps up tonight with two win-or-go-home games before the first round tips Saturday. Meanwhile, a 15-game MLB Friday kicks off with an afternoon matinee at Wrigley Field and stretches coast to coast into the night.
NBA
Play-In Tournament, Final Night
Two playoff berths are still on the line as the Play-In Tournament closes out its final night. Both games stream exclusively on Prime Video.
Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic · 7:30 PM ET
Kia Center · Prime Video
Market and model align: Charlotte by three in a 218-point game, with the Hornets given a 59.5% win probability. The model’s projected total of 218.3 nearly mirrors the posted 218.5.
LaMelo Ball’s p90 ceiling of 36.4 points — fueled by a p90 of seven three-pointers — is the game’s widest variance lever. Orlando’s counter sits on the glass, where Banchero’s p90 of 13.1 rebounds is the highest individual mark in the game.
Team | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|
CHA | Ball 23.5 | Bridges 6.1 | Ball 7.3 |
ORL | Banchero 22.9 | Banchero 8.1 | Suggs 5.3 |
Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns · 10:00 PM ET
Mortgage Matchup Center · Prime Video
Phoenix is posted at -3.5, but the model trims that to -2.6 with a 57.5% Suns win probability — nearly a full point of value for anyone backing Golden State.
Curry’s p90 of 41.6 points is the game’s single highest ceiling, but Phoenix has three additional double-digit scorers at the p50 (Green 19.4, Brooks 16.5, Allen 10.3) while Golden State’s offense drops off steeply after its top two. Depth versus starpower is the defining tension tonight.
Team | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|
GS | Curry 27.2 | Porzingis 5.8 | Curry 4.9 |
PHO | Booker 26.3 | Williams 7.3 | Booker 6.1 |
The full NBA slate
Matchup | Time ET | Line | Total | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CHA @ ORL | 7:30 | CHA -3 | 218.5 | CHA 59.5% |
GS @ PHO | 10:00 | PHO -3.5 | 220.5 | PHO 57.5% |
MLB
15-Game Friday
Three weeks into the season, the Cubs’ early offensive struggles meet a retooled Mets lineup in an afternoon feature at Wrigley. The first full Friday card of the year stretches from a 2:20 first pitch in Chicago to four West Coast finales after dark.
New York Mets at Chicago Cubs · 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
Chicago is posted as a -145 home favorite, but the model sees near a coin-flip — the Cubs win by half a run at 54.2% probability. The 10.5 total matches the projection exactly, so the disagreement is entirely on the side.
Both starters carry p90 strikeout ceilings north of eight (Cabrera 9.3, Senga 8.9), but they also project to surrender nearly five hits apiece. The biggest offensive ceiling belongs to Francisco Lindor, whose p90 of 5.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs leads the game, with Chicago’s Nico Hoerner (p90 5.4) right behind — each team’s upside runs through its table-setter.
Team | Pitcher | IP | K | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|
NYM | Senga | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.7 |
CHC | Cabrera | 5.4 | 5.5 | 4.6 |
Top bats (Hits + Runs + RBIs, p50)
Team | #1 | #2 | #3 |
|---|---|---|---|
NYM | Lindor 1.8 | Bichette 1.7 | Robert Jr. 1.6 |
CHC | Hoerner 2.0 | Bregman 1.8 | Suzuki 1.7 |
The full MLB slate
Matchup | Time ET | Line | Total | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
NYM @ CHC | 2:20 | CHC -145 | 10.5 | CHC 54.2% |
BAL @ CLE | 6:10 | CLE -137 | 8.5 | CLE 52.6% |
ATL @ PHI | 6:40 | ATL -115 | 9.5 | ATL 53.1% |
TB @ PIT | 6:40 | PIT -135 | 8 | PIT 52.9% |
SF @ WSH | 6:45 | SF -155 | 8.5 | SF 61.1% |
KC @ NYY | 7:05 | NYY -185 | 8.5 | NYY 59.7% |
MIL @ MIA | 7:10 | MIA -112 | 8.5 | MIL 51.7% |
DET @ BOS | 7:15 | BOS -125 | 8 | BOS 51.3% |
CIN @ MIN | 8:10 | MIN -175 | 7.5 | MIN 58.6% |
STL @ HOU | 8:10 | HOU -140 | 8.5 | HOU 54.3% |
LAD @ COL | 8:40 | LAD -302 | 9.5 | LAD 74.2% |
SD @ LAA | 9:38 | LAA -140 | 8.5 | LAA 53.8% |
CWS @ OAK | 9:40 | OAK -155 | 9.5 | OAK 56.3% |
TEX @ SEA | 9:40 | SEA -130 | 6.5 | SEA 51.8% |
TOR @ ARI | 9:40 | ARI -136 | 8.5 | ARI 52.9% |
