OPTIMAL BET · THE SLATE

Tonight’s board: 4 NBA playoff openers · 16 MLB · 4 NHL playoff Game 1s

The NBA and NHL playoffs arrive in full force on a packed Sunday, with four first-round Game 1s on each side. The MLB regular season rolls through its first full month with a 16-game slate headlined by Roki Sasaki and the Dodgers at Coors Field.

First Round, Game 1

The 2026 NBA Playoffs tip off with four first-round Game 1s today, each home team holding a significant edge. San Antonio and Portland square off in the nightcap with the board’s highest projected total.

Frost Bank Center

The model and market agree on the total — 221.2 projected versus 221.5 posted — making this the highest-scoring game on the board. San Antonio’s model win probability of 79.5% sits below the -600 moneyline’s implied 85.7%, hinting at a sliver of value on Portland’s +440.

Wembanyama is the series’ biggest lever on both ends, projecting 5.0 combined steals-plus-blocks at p50 — a number that leaps to 8.0 at the p90 ceiling. No other player on either roster cracks 3.0 in that category at the median, giving San Antonio a defensive disruption advantage Portland has no answer for.

16-Game Sunday · Week 4

The Dodgers chase a third straight World Series title heading into a marquee Sunday at Coors, with Roki Sasaki on the mound against Colorado. Three home favorites on the board — Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Philadelphia — face model disagreement, a signal worth watching on an otherwise chalky afternoon.

Coors Field

The model projects a total of 11.7, a tick above the market’s 11.5, with Los Angeles winning 72.8% of the time. The projected scoring split — 7.4 to 4.3 — suggests the Rockies’ side of the total may be harder to cash despite the Coors altitude.

Ohtani’s p90 ceiling of 7.7 combined Hits-plus-Runs-plus-RBIs is the single biggest swing factor on the board — Colorado’s top hitter, Goodman, tops out at 5.5 at the same percentile. Even at the p25 floor, Ohtani projects 0.7 in that category while Goodman sits at 0.0, a gap that makes the Dodgers’ run-scoring upside far more resilient.

Top bats (Hits + Runs + RBIs, p50)

Stanley Cup Playoffs, First Round · Day 2

The Stanley Cup Playoffs opened yesterday, and four more first-round series launch today. Colorado draws the heaviest favorite tag, while the Montreal–Tampa Bay Game 1 features the day’s most interesting model-versus-market gap.

Benchmark International Arena

The model projects a total of 6.1, under the market’s 6.5, and gives Tampa Bay a 62.0% win probability — a touch below the -188 moneyline’s implied 65.3%. Both numbers point toward Tampa Bay, but the total gap flags a potential lean toward the under.

Kucherov is the most bankable scorer in the game — the only skater on either team with a p25 of 1.0 point, meaning the model projects him to register at least a point in roughly 75% of simulations. His p90 shots-on-goal of 6.0 ties Caufield for the busiest trigger in the game, but Kucherov’s floor is simply higher than anyone on Montreal’s roster.