OPTIMAL BET · THE SLATE
Saturday, April 25
Tonight’s board: 4 NBA first-round games · 15 MLB · 3 NHL first-round games
The NBA and NHL postseasons collide on a loaded Saturday — four first-round basketball games plus three Game 4s on the ice — while MLB packs fifteen games into a coast-to-coast slate anchored by the Mexico City Series between San Diego and Arizona.
NBA
First Round, Games 3 & 4
Saturday’s first-round action spans both conferences, from Detroit and Oklahoma City’s Game 3 road matchups to pivotal Game 4s in Atlanta and Minneapolis.
Denver at Minnesota · 8:30 PM ET
Target Center · ABC · Market: DEN -1.5, total 229.5, DEN ML -120
Jokic towers over this series in every statistical dimension — he’s tracking toward 55 combined points, rebounds, and assists, and even a bad night for him lands right where Edwards and Murray are each expected to finish. His ceiling stretches past 70 in that composite, nearly 20 clear of anyone else on either roster.
The full NBA slate
| Matchup | Time ET | Line | Total | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ ORL | 1:00 | DET -2.5 | 214.5 | DET 56.8% |
| OKC @ PHX | 3:30 | OKC -8.5 | 214.5 | OKC 75.5% |
| NYK @ ATL | 6:00 | NYK -2 | 214.5 | NYK 54.9% |
| DEN @ MIN | 8:30 | DEN -1.5 | 229.5 | DEN 52.5% |
MLB
15-Game Saturday
A month into the season, the NL Central is baseball’s most dominant division and tonight’s slate stretches from Camden Yards all the way to the altitude of Mexico City.
San Diego at Arizona · 6:05 PM ET
Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú · Market: ARI ML -116, total 15.5
Mexico City’s altitude makes this the only double-digit total on tonight’s MLB slate, and both starters are expected to allow around four runs in abbreviated outings. The Padres’ bats carry a deeper power profile — Merrill and Laureano each project for more total bases than any Arizona hitter — even though the model sees this game as a virtual coin flip.
Top bats (Hits + Runs + RBIs, p50)
The full MLB slate
| Matchup | Time ET | Line | Total | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS @ BAL | 12:05 | BAL -115 | 7.5 | BOS 51.6% |
| SEA @ STL | 2:15 | SEA -148 | 7.5 | SEA 59.9% |
| CLE @ TOR | 3:07 | TOR -142 | 7.5 | TOR 54.0% |
| MIA @ SF | 4:05 | SF -120 | 7.5 | SF 50.1% |
| MIN @ TB | 4:10 | TB -136 | 8 | TB 52.7% |
| WSH @ CWS | 4:10 | CWS -140 | 8.5 | CWS 53.1% |
| COL @ NYM | 4:10 | NYM -205 | 7.5 | NYM 61.8% |
| SD @ ARI | 6:05 | ARI -116 | 15.5 | SD 50.5% |
| OAK @ TEX | 7:05 | TEX -135 | 7.5 | TEX 52.6% |
| PIT @ MIL | 7:10 | MIL -137 | 8.5 | MIL 52.7% |
| NYY @ HOU | 7:10 | NYY -150 | 9 | NYY 60.0% |
| LAA @ KC | 7:10 | KC -152 | 8.5 | KC 55.5% |
| PHI @ ATL | 7:15 | ATL -130 | 8.5 | ATL 51.8% |
| DET @ CIN | 7:15 | DET -110 | 9.5 | DET 53.1% |
| CHC @ LAD | 7:15 | LAD -145 | 9.5 | LAD 54.0% |
NHL
Stanley Cup Playoffs, First Round — Game 4
Three Game 4s headline the Saturday slate, with Carolina carrying a 3-0 series lead into Ottawa and looking to complete the sweep.
Dallas at Minnesota · 5:30 PM ET
Grand Casino Arena · TBS · Market: MIN -1.5, total 5.5, MIN ML -135
Robertson carries the widest individual shot-generation gap in this game — no one else on either roster comes close to his expected volume on goal. But Minnesota counters with depth: three different forwards are each tracking toward the same shot clip, spreading the attack across lines and putting constant pressure on Oettinger.
The full NHL slate
| Matchup | Time ET | Line | Total | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR @ OTT | 3:00 | CAR -125 | 5.5 | CAR 53.8% |
| DAL @ MIN | 5:30 | MIN -135 | 5.5 | MIN 54.3% |
| PIT @ PHI | 8:00 | PHI -117 | 6 | PHI 51.2% |
