Luis Arraez Projects As Tonight's Top Bat

Fifteen games fill tonight's MLB board, and the marquee matchup sends San Francisco into Kauffman Stadium as a modest road favorite. The model gives the Giants a 52.6% win probability against a Royals club leaning on Bobby Witt Jr., while on the other side Luis Arraez projects as the most productive hitter in the ballpark.

The Number
54.6%
The model's win probability for the New York Yankees tonight — its most confident call on the board.
Today's Slate

MLB · 15 games — Watch: San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals, 7:40 ET

Biggest Edge · Model vs. Market
Where our projection disagrees most with tonight's price: OAK @ ARI
Model — OAK win
48.0%
Price implies
46.1%
Player to Watch

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals · 7:40 ET

Kauffman Stadium · Market: SF -110, total 9.5

Luis Arraez has built his career on putting the bat on the ball, and tonight the model likes him as the most productive hitter on either roster, with Kansas City's Bobby Witt Jr. right behind him. On the mound, Tyler Mahle is projected to go deeper into the game and rack up more strikeouts than Royals starter Luinder Avila, giving San Francisco a rotation edge in Kansas City.

TeamPitcherIPKR
SFMahle5.23.93.0
KCAvila5.03.42.0

Top bats — projected Hits + Runs + RBIs

Team#1#2#3
SFArraez 2.1Schmitt 1.9Hoo Lee 1.8
KCWitt Jr. 2.0Caglianone 1.8Jensen 1.6
Prop of the Day
Tyler Mahle — outs
Optimal projection
15.6
Market line
15.5
Your call — vote and see how the room leans:

Tyler Mahle outs — Over or Under 15.5 tonight?

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The Full Board

MLB — full slate

MatchupTime ETLineTotalWin %
LAD @ PHI6:40PHI -1348.5PHI 51.7%
MIN @ CLE6:40CLE -1488.5CLE 54.3%
PIT @ NYY7:05NYY -1509NYY 54.6%
TB @ TOR7:07TB -1157.5TB 54.1%
BAL @ BOS7:10BOS -1408BOS 52.6%
SD @ ATL7:15ATL -1458.5ATL 53.2%
NYM @ MIL7:40MIL -1458.5MIL 53.8%
SF @ KC7:40SF -1109.5SF 52.7%
CWS @ TEX8:05TEX -1278.5TEX 50.5%
DET @ CHC8:05CHC -1208.5DET 50.8%
MIA @ HOU8:10HOU -1258.5HOU 50.5%
WSH @ COL8:40WSH -10912.5WSH 53.0%
STL @ LAA9:38STL -1109.5STL 53.6%
OAK @ ARI9:40ARI -1369.5ARI 52.0%
CIN @ SEA9:40SEA -1127.5CIN 52.6%
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