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Marina Mabrey Projects to Outscore Everyone on the Floor

Marina Mabrey heads into the second half of a home-and-home with Golden State projected for more points than anyone else on the floor, well clear of Gabby Williams and the rest of the Valkyries' rotation. Down in Denver, Freddy Peralta takes the thin air at Coors and still projects for more strikeouts than any arm on tonight's board, leading a Rays lineup that projects to outhit the Rockies' best up and down the order.

The Number
84.1%
The model's win probability for the Golden State Valkyries tonight — its most confident call on the board.
Today's Slate

MLB · 15 games — Watch: Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies, 8:40 ET

WNBA · 1 game — Watch: Toronto Tempo at Golden State Valkyries, 10:00 ET

Biggest Edge · Model vs. Market
Where our projection disagrees most with tonight's price: PIT @ MIL
Model — PIT win
43.8%
Price implies
41.5%
Player to Watch

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies · 8:40 ET

Coors Field · Market: TB -147, total 11

Tampa Bay, owner of the best record in the American League, sends Freddy Peralta into the thin air at Coors Field — and even there, no starter on tonight's board projects for more strikeouts. Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz anchor a Rays lineup projected ahead of every hitter Colorado can trot out, the clearest gap on the card tonight.

TeamPitcherIPKR
TBPeralta5.24.93.0
COLHughes5.03.23.0

Top bats — projected Hits + Runs + RBIs

Team#1#2#3
TBCaminero 2.5Diaz 2.5Aranda 2.4
COLMcCarthy 1.9Moniak 1.8Goodman 1.7

WNBA · Toronto Tempo at Golden State Valkyries · 10:00 ET

Chase Center · Market: GS -13.5, total 168.5

Mabrey, playing in her first All-Star season for the expansion Tempo, projects as the highest-scoring player on the floor by a clear margin over every Valkyrie, Gabby Williams included. Golden State is the heavy favorite at home in the second game of this back-to-back, but Toronto's offense still runs through one player — and the model has her out in front of everyone else tonight.

TeamPTSREBAST
TORMabrey 17.8Sabally 4.3Allemand 5.3
GSWilliams 13.9Thornton 4.9Burton 5.8
Prop of the Day
Marina Mabrey — points
Optimal projection
17.8
Market line
18.5
Your call — vote and see how the room leans:

Marina Mabrey points — Over or Under 18.5 tonight?

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The Full Board

MLB — full slate

MatchupTime ETLineTotalWin %
LAA @ BAL6:35BAL -1508.5BAL 54.6%
NYM @ CLE6:40CLE -1527.5CLE 54.9%
WSH @ PHI6:40PHI -2609PHI 66.6%
OAK @ CIN6:40CIN -1309.5CIN 52.4%
STL @ NYY7:05NYY -1718NYY 58.1%
CWS @ BOS7:10BOS -1309BOS 51.5%
MIA @ ATL7:15ATL -1469.5ATL 54.4%
PIT @ MIL7:40MIL -1627.5MIL 56.2%
MIN @ KC7:40MIN -1439MIN 60.0%
SF @ TEX8:05TEX -1977.5TEX 60.8%
LAD @ CHC8:05LAD -2029LAD 66.7%
TOR @ HOU8:10HOU -1308.5HOU 51.4%
TB @ COL8:40TB -14711TB 59.9%
DET @ SEA9:40SEA -1428.5SEA 53.3%
SD @ ARI9:40ARI -1338.5ARI 52.2%

WNBA — full slate

MatchupTime ETLineTotalWin %
TOR @ GS10:00GS -13.5168.5GS 84.1%
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One board, two sports, plenty worth watching tonight.

See you tomorrow. — The Morning Line

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