Alyssa Thomas projects for a near triple-double tonight

Alyssa Thomas is projected for right around 15 points tonight, and her rebounding and assist numbers put her within shouting distance of a triple-double. Phoenix is a strong favorite on the road at Connecticut, and eighteen games fill out tonight's board across MLB and the WNBA, with Miami favored at home over the Angels at loanDepot park.

The Number
69.4%
The model's win probability for the Phoenix Mercury — its most confident call on the board.
Today's Slate

MLB · 15 games — Watch: Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlins, 7:10 ET

WNBA · 3 games — Watch: Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun, 7:30 ET

Biggest Edge · Model vs. Market
Where our projection disagrees most with the market price: LAA @ MIA
Model — LAA win
43.2%
Price implies
40.7%
Player to Watch

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlins · 7:10 ET

loanDepot park · Market: MIA -163, total 9.5

Miami's lineup has the clear separation tonight — Otto Lopez, Xavier Edwards and Kyle Stowers are all projected to reach base and drive in runs at a higher clip than any Angels regular, with Nolan Schanuel leading the visitors but still trailing every one of Miami's top three. On the mound, Klassen and Phillips profile as near mirror images in workload and strikeout upside, but Miami is favored to have the last word at home.

TeamPitcherIPKR
LAAKlassen4.84.03.0
MIAPhillips5.03.82.0

Top bats — projected Hits + Runs + RBIs

Team#1#2#3
LAASchanuel 1.6Trout 1.5Grissom 1.5
MIALopez 1.9Edwards 1.8Stowers 1.8
 

WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun · 7:30 ET

Mohegan Sun Arena · Market: PHX -6.5, total 174.5

Kahleah Copper is Phoenix's engine, with a scoring ceiling that pushes into the 30s if the Mercury's offense gets rolling early. Connecticut counters on the glass — Olivia Nelson-Ododa projects for more rebounding than anyone else on the floor tonight — but the model still likes the road team comfortably in this one.

TeamPTSREBAST
PHXCopper 20.4Thomas 7.8Thomas 8.2
CONNLacan 12.5Nelson-Ododa 8.2Lacan 4.8
Props of the Day
MLB
Jordan Walker — hits
Optimal projection
1.2
Market line
1.5
Your call — vote and see how the room leans:

Jordan Walker hits — Over or Under 1.5 tonight?

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WNBA
Alyssa Thomas — assists
Optimal projection
8.2
Market line
8.5
Fantasy Projections

The highest projected fantasy scorers on the board.

MLB

#PitchersPROJ
1Kevin GausmanCHC19.6
2Nathan EovaldiTEX19.4
3Payton TolleBOS18.6
4Zack WheelerPHI17.7
5Logan GilbertSEA17.2
#HittersPROJ
1Kyle SchwarberPHI6.8
2Jordan WalkerSTL6.6
3Nick SogardBOS6.4
4Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC6.4
5Ceddanne RafaelaBOS6.0
 

WNBA

#Top playsPROJ
1Alyssa ThomasPHX36.9
2Jessica ShepardDAL35.2
3Angel ReeseATL33.6
4Shakira AustinWSH31.8
5Paige BueckersDAL31.6
The Full Board

MLB — full slate

MatchupTime ETLineTotalWin %
NYM @ PIT6:40PIT -1358.5PIT 52.9%
TOR @ PHI6:40PHI -2157.5PHI 63.7%
CIN @ WSH6:45CIN +1029.5CIN 51.4%
ATL @ NYY7:05NYY -1488.5NYY 55.4%
LAA @ MIA7:10MIA -1639.5MIA 56.8%
OAK @ BOS7:10BOS -2658.5BOS 68.1%
CLE @ CWS7:40CLE -1408.5CLE 59.4%
MIN @ MIL7:40MIL -1797.5MIL 59.3%
CHC @ KC8:10CHC -1639.5CHC 63.0%
COL @ STL8:15STL -1678.5STL 57.5%
BAL @ TEX8:15TEX -1477.5TEX 54.3%
LAD @ ARI9:40LAD -1759.5LAD 63.5%
HOU @ SD9:40SD -1218.5HOU 50.1%
TB @ SEA9:45SEA -1137TB 51.5%
DET @ SF10:15DET -1258DET 56.9%

WNBA — full slate

MatchupTime ETLineTotalWin %
ATL @ WSH7:30ATL -5.5170.5ATL 66.7%
PHX @ CONN7:30PHX -6.5174.5PHX 69.4%
GS @ DAL9:30DAL -1.5161.5DAL 51.1%
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That's tonight's board. See you back here tomorrow.

See you tomorrow. — The Morning Line

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